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EURUSD Rates Week in Review
Last week, our technical indicators suggested to go Long at or below 1.08, setting a Stop Loss at 1.06, and Short it at or above 1.0825, setting a Stop Loss at 1.09.
This week, EURUSD price range was 1.0788 high, set this past Monday, and 1.0626 low, set yesterday, Wednesday. So, Monday, we could have bought the currency pair at 1.0722, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0786, for 0.6% profit. Tuesday, we could have bought it at 1.0680, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0778, for 0.92% profit. Wednesday, we could have bought it at 1.0628, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0737, for 1.03% profit. Today, Thursday, we could have bought it at 1.0647, selling it on an intraday trading at 1.0695, for an extra 0.45% ROI.
Fundamental Overview
Global markets remain dicey on Thursday even as growth fears join China-linked headlines. The reason could be linked to the cautious sentiment ahead of this week’s key data, as well as the US Treasury yields’ struggle to refresh its two-week high, down 1.2 basis points (bps) to 2.91% by the press time.
On the other hand, firmer US data also allowed Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin to stay positive about the future rate hikes. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for April rose to 56.1 versus the 54.5 expected and the 55.4 prior. Further, the US JOLTs Job Openings eased below 11.8 prior readings but matched 11.4 market forecasts.
Alternatively, no change in the Eurozone Unemployment Rate also exerted downside pressure on the EUR/USD prices even as comments from European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Robert Holzmann defended bulls. The policymaker said that the record-high inflation print for the euro area supports the view that a 50 basis points rate hike will be needed.
Considering the sour sentiment and increasing odds of the Fed’s aggression in rate hikes, not to forget recently firmer US data, EURUSD prices are likely to remain pressured. However, today’s US ADP Employment Change for May, expected at 300K versus 247K prior, will be eyed closely due to being the early signal for Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). Additionally, the US Factory Orders for May, bearing forecasts of a 0.7% increase compared to 2.2% in previous readouts, could also entertain the pair traders.
Technical Analysis
EURUSD manages to hold in positive territory slightly below 1.0700 in the European session on Thursday. The data from the euro area showed that producer inflation rose at a softer pace than expected in April. The US economic docket will feature ADP employment report.
A clear downside break of a three-week-old support line, now resistance around 1.0750, directs EURUSD towards the 21-DMA level surrounding 1.0600.
For next week, last Tuesday, we saw price reacting to 1.0678, which could be the bottom on the H1 trend. This is also a chance to enter short-term Long trades with stops below 1,0678.
Our technical analysis are suggesting to go Long on the currency pair at or below 1.0750, setting a Stop loss at 1.06, and Short it above 1.0750, setting a Stop loss at 1.09.
As of 12:53 PM (GMT), the EURUSD was trading at 1.06870.
EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow:
Euro to Dollar forecast on Friday, June, 3: exchange rate 1.0574 Dollars, maximum 1.0733, minimum 1.0415. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, June, 6: exchange rate 1.0574 Dollars, maximum 1.0733, minimum 1.0415. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, June, 7: exchange rate 1.0574 Dollars, maximum 1.0733, minimum 1.0415. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, June, 8: exchange rate 1.0751 Dollars, maximum 1.0912, minimum 1.0590.
In 1 week, Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, June, 9: exchange rate 1.0751 Dollars, maximum 1.0912, minimum 1.0590. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, June, 10: exchange rate 1.0575 Dollars, maximum 1.0734, minimum 1.0416. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, June, 13: exchange rate 1.0751 Dollars, maximum 1.0912, minimum 1.0590. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, June, 14: exchange rate 1.0724 Dollars, maximum 1.0885, minimum 1.0563. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, June, 15: exchange rate 1.0847 Dollars, maximum 1.1010, minimum 1.0684.