EURUSD Rates Week in Review

Last week, our technical indicators suggested to go Short at or above 1.02, setting a Stop Loss at 1.0425, and to go Long at or below 1.01, setting a Stop Loss at 0.98.

This week, EURUSD price range was 1.027 high, set this past Monday, and 1.0146 low, set yesterday, Wednesday. So, Monday, we could have Short the currency pair at 1.0268, Covering it on an intraday trading at 1.0157, for 1.08% profit. Wednesday, we could have Short it at 1.021, Covering  it on an intraday trading at 1.0144, for an extra 0.65% ROI.

 Fundamental Overview

EURUSD has managed to erase a small portion of its daily losses after having tested 1.0150 in the early European session. The near-term technical outlook suggests that the bearish bias stays intact but the shared currency seems to be holding its ground on hawkish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials.

European Central Bank (ECB) executive board member Isabel Schnabel said earlier in the day that there were a number of indicators pointing to a risk of de-anchoring inflation expectations. Schnabel further noted that inflation concerns before the July rate hike had not been alleviated. Additionally, ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said that they will continue to raise interest rates with the goal of not allowing inflation to become entrenched. Schnabel is scheduled to speak again at 17:15 GMT later in the day.

In the second half of the day, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and July Existing Home Sales data will be featured in the US economic docket. Earlier in the week, we saw some dollar weakness on disappointing Housing Starts data and a similar market reaction could be witnessed in case there is a significant decline in Existing Home Sales.

Meanwhile, US stock index futures trade in negative territory following the heavy daily losses registered in Wall Street’s main indexes on Wednesday. In case safe-haven flows continue to dominate the financial markets in the second half of the day, EURUSD could have a difficult time gathering recovery momentum.

Technical 2025 Analysis

EURUSD is recovering ground towards 1.0200 as risk-off flows ease and the US dollar pares gains despite weaker yields. The euro, however, remains vulnerable amid the deepening EU energy crisis and growth risks. US data awaited.

EURUSD stays within a touching distance of 1.0150 support, where the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest downtrend is located. If that level fails, interim support seems to have formed at 1.0120 (static level) ahead of 1.0100 (psychological level, static level) and 1.0050 (static level).

On the upside, the 200-period SMA on the four-hour chart aligns as immediate resistance at 1.0180 before 1.0200 (100-period SMA) and 1.0230 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement).

For next week, EURUSD still breaks through the triangle upwards and forms a strong momentum, but this movement was not enough for the price to break through the resistance of the global down-trending price channel .

The price makes a false break of the resistance and forms a pullback, within which the price breaks the lower boundary of the local ascending price channel, which is trading short inside the range. Hence, we believe the downward movement will continue.

Further, the price is consolidating under the support of the triangle and the ascending channel, forming a short set-up. The short-term target is support at 1.0075.

The following technical analysis chart is suggesting to go Short at or above 1.00, setting a Stop Loss at 1.03574, and to go Long below 1.00, setting a Stop Loss at 0.98.

As of 12:51 PM (GMT+1), the EURUSD was trading at 1.01744.

EUR to USD forecast for tomorrow: Euro to Dollar forecast on Friday, August, 19: exchange rate 1.0188 Dollars, maximum 1.0341, minimum 1.0035. EUR to USD forecast on Monday, August, 22: exchange rate 1.0195 Dollars, maximum 1.0348, minimum 1.0042. Euro to Dollar forecast on Tuesday, August, 23: exchange rate 1.0104 Dollars, maximum 1.0256, minimum 0.9952. EUR to USD forecast on Wednesday, August, 24: exchange rate 1.0037 Dollars, maximum 1.0188, minimum 0.9886.

In 1 week, Euro to Dollar forecast on Thursday, August, 25: exchange rate 1.0057 Dollars, maximum 1.0208, minimum 0.9906. EUR to USD forecast on Friday, August, 26: exchange rate 1.0144 Dollars, maximum 1.0296, minimum 0.9992. Euro to Dollar forecast on Monday, August, 29: exchange rate 1.0164 Dollars, maximum 1.0316, minimum 1.0012. EUR to USD forecast on Tuesday, August, 30: exchange rate 1.0173 Dollars, maximum 1.0326, minimum 1.0020. Euro to Dollar forecast on Wednesday, August, 31: exchange rate 1.0109 Dollars, maximum 1.0261, minimum 0.9957.

Disclosures: The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in the EUR/USD or any other securities. This overview may include or be based in part on projections, valuations, estimates and other financial data supplied by third parties, which has not been verified by Pedro Ferreira. Any information regarding projected or estimated investment returns are estimates only and should not be considered indicative of the actual results that may be realized or predictive of the performance of the EUR/USD or any underlying security.  Further, Pedro Ferreira is not long or short in the currency pair. Past investment results of any underlying managers should not be viewed as indicative of future performance of the EUR/USD.