Check the Daily Gold Trading Report for October 29

Direct link: Check the Daily Gold Trading Report for October 29

Welcome to your Thursday, October 29, 2026, Daily Gold Trading Report.

XAU/USD is trading near $4,051 this morning, and the decisive level is $4,100 as gold digests the Fed hold and waits on PCE inflation data.

1. Key Technical Levels

The levels are built from the reported session range, moving averages and recent closes.

approximate daily closes Oct 15 to Oct 28, 2026, plus the live quote on Oct 29

2. Trading Bias

The bias is Bearish. Spot gold is recovering from the $3,975 low but still trades below its key daily moving averages in a corrective phase, and the rebound has stalled at the former support near $4,070, which now acts as resistance. The 100-hour EMA near $4,044 sits just under spot and is the first line buyers must defend, while the $4,000 to $4,100 range keeps both sides honest. On the 1H and 30m timeframes gold is consolidating inside a downward channel with waning bearish momentum, so the bias is bearish but not stretched, and the RSI and MACD read stays qualitative.

daily change in the close, Oct 16 to Oct 29, 2026

The line in the sand is $4,100. A sustained hold above the range top invalidates the bearish bias and opens $4,120 and then the $4,150 bull case, while a decisive break below $4,000 targets $3,975 and then $3,943.

3. Macro & Geopolitical Analysis

The Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% in a 10-2 vote, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favour of a quarter-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh said officials have shown their readiness to act but gave no clear signal on December, where a hike is priced at roughly 83% to 85%, and he floated cutting the number of scheduled meetings from eight to six a year. The 10-year Treasury yield is sitting around 5.03%, just above the threshold gold bulls watch, and the dollar index is holding near 102, which keeps the opportunity cost of holding gold high.

Oil is the link that ties the geopolitics back to the Fed. Brent settled near $115 on Wednesday after the Houthis claimed a missile strike on Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery, a claim Saudi authorities have not confirmed, while WTI closed near $103. Qatari mediators have given Iran a new draft deal built around seven days of confidence-building steps, and Tehran is expected to respond by the end of this week, but oil's risk premium may only start to erode if the US midterms on November 3 pass without renewed strikes on Iran. Gold has fallen about 2.5% in October and is on track for a second monthly decline after last week's AI-driven stock rout forced investors to sell bullion to cover losses elsewhere.

4. News of the Day & Impact Outcome, Gold

Gold slipped about 0.5% to near $4,039 on Wednesday as higher oil stoked inflation fears, then steadied near $4,050 in Asian trade after the Fed hold gave no clear guide on December. The next catalyst arrives this morning US time, when September PCE inflation and third-quarter GDP are due, and the PCE print will decide whether the December hike becomes a near certainty.

If PCE comes in soft and the Fed's tone is read as short of hawkish, a hold above $4,070 would open $4,085 and then $4,100, with falling yields and a softer dollar as the catalyst.

If PCE runs hot and confirms the December hike, a slip under $4,035 would target $4,015 and then $4,000, with the 10-year yield above 5%, a firmer dollar or another oil spike as the catalyst.

Informational analysis only, not financial advice.

I'm Aamir Iqbal, a market analyst. I publish the Daily Gold Trading Report, a professional daily XAU/USD report with exact intraday levels, annotated charts, and full macro coverage, at smoothoperator00.substack.com.