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EUR / USD holds above 1.17

Apr 1 2021, 02:01 PM (+06) |

EUR / USD in Asia was trading slightly lower due to pressure from the dollar.

At the beginning of the European trading session, the dollar began to gradually lose its positions due to a decline in the yield of American Treasuries. The 10-year yield declined from an intraday high of 1.753% to 1.725%. This is how the market responds to Joe Biden's ambitious plan to transform the infrastructure of the world's largest economy. Following the $ 1.9 trillion that the US plans to spend on fighting the pandemic and supporting the economy, the White House wants to channel about $ 2 trillion to modernize the infrastructure. And this is only the first part of a larger $ 4 trillion dollars project.


In Europe today, the market will focus on macroeconomic statistics. The data on retail sales in Germany for February have already been published. The sales volume increased by 1.2%, against the forecast of + 2.0%. Manufacturing PMI is expected to be released later. These data are of the greatest interest to investors, since the calculation was carried out after the extension and strengthening of quarantine restrictions in Germany, France and other EU countries. If the actual values ​​come out at the level of forecasts, the European currency may receive very strong support.


There are two key news on the US economic calendar: weekly jobless claims data and ISM manufacturing PMI.


It is also worth remembering that tomorrow is a day off in the US and EU countries. Financial platforms will be closed. Many investors can start fixing positions before the long weekend and the publication of data on the US labor market, so today we can see quite volatile trading, which will not always correspond to the general fundamental background.

The first prerequisites for the development of a corrective movement appeared on the chart. If buyers keep the price above the level of 1.1720, then today we can see the growth of quotations in the direction of the levels 1.1770 and 1.1800.


· Resistance levels: 1.1770, 1.1800, 1.1850.


· Support levels: 1.1720, 1.1690, 1.1630.


The main scenario is growth from current levels in the direction of 1.1800.


An alternative scenario is a breakdown of the intraday support at 1.1720 and a decline to 1.1690.


The current fundamental background is neutral. We consider longs with very moderate risks from the level of 1.1720.

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